Full-time bachelor's enrollment fractions of foreign national students have remained between 5.5% and 6.2% for all but one of the last twenty years. For bachelor's degrees, as shown in the graph below, an average of 5,163 were awarded annually over the past twenty years. In thirteen of these years the number of degrees departed from the average by less than 500.

Graduate degrees have reacted differently to foreign national enrollments. Full-time master's degree enrollments of foreign national students reached a maximum in fall 2002 and declined 22.7% through fall 2005.

As shown in the graph above, declines in foreign national master's degrees began in AY2004-05 and continued in AY2005-06 (a total decline of 16.3%). During this two-year period, master's degrees awarded to US citizens increased 3.9%. The overall declining trend in engineering master's degrees will continue as long as the decline in foreign national master's enrollments continues.

The number of engineering doctoral degrees awarded annually is strongly dependent upon foreign national students as shown the graph below. However, the very favorable "concave upward" trends in both doctoral degree curves on the graph is insufficient to render a meaningful guide to future trends. Key indicators to future doctoral degree trends are master's enrollment and degree trends and doctoral enrollments for foreign national students.

Ongoing declining trends in master's enrollments (and, more recently, in degrees) do not bode well for continued increases in doctoral enrollments and degrees. Full-time doctoral enrollments of foreign nationals increased 42.2% from fall 2000 through fall 2004. From the fall 2004 maximum, foreign national doctoral enrollments declined 0.9% in fall 2005. Thus, all pertinent indicators predict that a decline in total doctoral degrees in engineering is about to take place in the near future. Considering the typical "lag times" between enrollments and degrees, declines in doctoral degrees in engineering might begin as soon as AY2008-09.

Fractions of Degrees Awarded to Foreign Nationals

The fractions of engineering bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees awarded to foreign nationals over the last twenty-five years are shown in the graph below. Although a slight declining trend can be discerned since AY1998-99, it should be noted that the current bachelor's degree fraction is essentially the same as in AY1991-92. The fraction of master's degrees reached a maximum of 46.0% in AY2002-03 and declined thereafter, reaching 40.2% in AY2005-06. The fractions of doctoral degrees awarded to foreign nationals continue to increase substantially from the minimum of 45.0% in AY1998-99 and reached 62.2% in AY2005-06. For reasons presented earlier in this report, a new maximum should occur in a few years.

Bachelor's Degree Trends of Foreign Nationals in Individual Engineering Disciplines

The three graphs below show the foreign national degree fractions for the thirteen individual engineering disciplines selected for study. "Computer" includes computer science degrees "inside" and "outside" the engineering college surveyed. "Biological" includes both bioengineering and biomedical engineering.

Clearly, the fraction of petroleum engineering bachelor's degrees awarded to foreign national students is dominant. Industrial, electrical, computer, management and systems engineering bachelor's degree fractions exceed that of engineering in AY2005-06. The fractions of chemical, biological and aerospace engineering are essentially the same as engineering as a whole. Mechanical, materials, civil and nuclear engineering have degree fractions less than engineering. Current trends for most disciplines are subtle and very few changes in the rankings of the various disciplines have occurred over the past decade.

Master's Degree Trends of Foreign Nationals in Individual Engineering Disciplines

The second graph below shows the comparison of the thirteen disciplines selected for study to overall engineering in terms of fractions of master's degrees awarded to foreign nationals. Petroleum engineering is overwhelmingly preferred. Industrial, electrical, computer, and chemical engineering fractions currently exceed that of engineering. Materials and mechanical engineering have foreign national master's degree fractions essentially the same as that of engineering. Biological and civil engineering have fractions lower than engineering; aerospace, management, nuclear and systems engineering fractions are substantially lower than engineering. Trends for master's degree fractions for almost all disciplines are declining.

Doctoral Degree Trends of Foreign Nationals in Individual Engineering Disciplines

The graph above shows the fractions of engineering doctoral degrees awarded to foreign nationals over the past quarter century in the disciplines selected for this study. As shown for bachelor's and master's degrees, the fractions awarded in petroleum engineering are very large. Fractions for electrical, civil and industrial engineering also exceed those of engineering as a whole. Many engineering disciplines currently have foreign national degree fractions essentially the same as engineering (computer, mechanical, systems, materials, management, nuclear and aerospace engineering). Chemical and biological engineering fractions are less than engineering.
Generally, all disciplines have increasing fractions of degrees awarded to foreign nationals. Similar to the data shown for bachelor's and master's degree fractions for foreign nationals, the ranking of degree fractions has undergone little change in the last decade or so.

Summary

The bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees awarded to foreign nationals were studied for engineering and thirteen individual engineering disciplines over the last quarter century. For bachelor's degrees, both the annual number of degrees and the fractions of degrees awarded to foreign nationals have varied little.

The total number of master's degrees awarded by US engineering colleges declined significantly in AY2005-06 following full-time enrollment declines from the maximum in fall 2003. The major influence on these declines was the 22.7% decrease in the enrollments of foreign national students from the fall 2002 maximum through fall 2005. The fraction of engineering master's degrees awarded to foreign nationals reached a maximum of 45.4% in AY2003-04 and declined to 40.2% in AY2005-06. Generally, all of the thirteen engineering disciplines studied are currently experiencing declines in fractions of master's degrees awarded to foreign nationals. Little change in the rankings of disciplines has taken place over the past decade.

The total number of doctoral degrees in engineering reached new records in AY2004-05 and AY2005-06. However, the growth in total engineering full-time doctoral enrollment in fall 2005 was only 0.9% and enrollments of foreign national students declined by 0.9%. Since 62.2% of the doctoral degrees in engineering were awarded to foreign nationals in AY2005-06, declines in the numbers of degrees should be expected in the near future. At the present time, essentially all thirteen engineering disciplines have increasing fractions of doctoral degrees awarded to foreign nationals and the rankings of the discipline rankings have varied little over the past twenty years.

Acknowledgments

The degree data used in this study originated from the annual surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends acknowledges the efforts of this organization in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering profession. Persons seeking further information about their surveys and the availability of survey data should visit the EWC Web site (www.aaes.org).

Footnote

Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.